Estimates of inter-provincial migration in South Africa, 1996-2011
List of Authors
  • Palamuleni, Martin E

Keyword
  • Migration, census survival ratio, population growth rate, in-migration, out-migration, South Africa

Abstract
  • Migration is an important component of population change in South Africa. Unfortunately, like in most countries, reliable data on migration is not readily available. The aim of this study is to estimate net internal migration for provinces in South Africa using Census Survival Ratio Method (CSRM). This method is underutilized in demographic research in the country and is based on the reported age-sex statistics collected in the census and demographic surveys. The method compares the projected population for each age and sex based on the first censuses and the reported population at the second census. In absence of errors in the age statistics the difference between the projected and enumerated populations could be attributed to net migration. The results indicate that during the intercensal period 1996-2001, Gauteng and Western Cape were the major receiving provinces whereas the other remaining provinces were the sending provinces in the country. The results are consistent with findings based on other estimation procedures and correspond to nature of social and economic development in the country. One policy implication of the study is that efforts should continue being made to make the sending provinces more attractive so as to reduce the inflow of people to the crowded and more affluent provinces of Gauteng and Western Cape.

Reference
  • 1. Arriaga EE. et. Al. (1994). Population Analysis with Microcomputers: Presentation of Techniques, Volume One, Bureau of the Census, Washington.
    2. Bhagat RB. (2005). “Conceptual issues in the measurement of internal migration in India” paper presented at the XXV International Population Conference, Tours, July 2005.
    3. Bilsborrow R. (2005). “The use of census data in studies of migration and environment” paper presented during the meeting “Censuses in the 21st Century: Imporving Data Utilisation and Dissemination” XXV International Population Conference, Tours, July 2005.
    4. Bogue DJ, Hinze K and White MJ. (1993). “The Methodology for Measuring Net Migration” Bogue, D.J. et. Al. ed. Readings in Population Research Methodology Volume 4, Social Development Center, Chicago.
    5. Kalule-Sabiti I. and Kahimbaara J. (1996). “Analysis of Life-Time Migration in the Former Transkei, Eastern Cape” South African Journal of Sociology, 27, 81-89.
    6. Kalule-Sabiti I., Kahimbaara JA and Chimere-Dan O. (2001). Youth Migration and Poverty in the North West Province. The Population Training and Research Unit, University of North West. A Poverty Alleviation Programme Research Report. Jointly commissioned by the North West Provincial Department of Social Services & the National Department of Social Development.
    7. Khalfani, A. K., Zuberi T., Bah S. & Lehohla P. J. 2005. “Population Statistics” in Zuberi T, Sibanda A, & Udjo E (ed) The Demography of South Africa, ME Sharpe, London, 3-39.
    8. Kpedekpo GMK. (1976). Essentials for Demographic Analysis in Africa, Longman, London.
    9. Kok P, O’donovan M, Bouare O. and nd Van Zyl J. (2003). Post-Apartheid Patterns of Internal Migration in South Africa, Human Science Research Council, Pretoria.
    10. Mears R. (2004). Economic Factors affecting Migration in South Africa, Department of Economics, Rand Afrikaans University RAU., Research Paper No. 0401.
    11. Naidoo N, Leibbrandt M., Dorrington R. (2008). “Magnitudes, Personal Characteristics and Activities of Eastern Cape Migrants: A Comparison with other Migrants and with Non-migrants using Data from the 1996 and 2001 Censuses” Southern African Journal of Demography 111.:3-38.
    12. Palamuleni ME. (2008). Demographic Changes in South Africa, 1996-2007, VDM publishing, Saarbrucken, Germany.
    13. Palamuleni, M.E. (2015). Age reporting in the North West Province, South Africa, 1996=2011. Transylvanian Review xxiv(4):1-15.
    14. Perveen A. (1993). “Inter-Provincial Migration in Pakistan, 1971-1981” The Pakistan Development Review 324.:725-735.
    15. Potgieter, M.A. and Calitz (1999). “Direct and Indirect Methods of Measuring Internal Migration in South Africa” Presented at the Workshop on Phase 2 of Census 1996. Review Held on 3 and 4 December 1999 at the Wanderers Club in Johannesburg.
    16. Roux D.J. (2001). Why is migration important to the North West Province? Centre for Population Studies. University of Pretoria.
    17. Shryock HS and Siegel JS. (1976). Methods and Materials in Demography, Academic Press, New York.
    18. Simelane SE. (2002). “An overall and demographic description of the South African Population based on the Census 1996”, Occasional Paper Series, 2002/1, Statistics SouthAfrica, Pretoria.
    19. Sivamurthy M. (1969). “Errors in the Estimation of Net Migration Rate in the Studies of Internal Migration” Journal of the American Statistical Association 64(328)1434-1428.
    20. Statistics South Africa (1998). Living in North West: Selected findings of the 1995 October household survey, Pretoria.
    21. Statistics South Africa (1999). The People of South Africa: Population Census 1996. Calculation the Undercount in Census ‘1996, Stoker and others., Pretoria.
    22. Statistics South Africa. (2003). Census 2001: How the count was done, Pretoria.
    23. Statistics South Africa (2005). Achieving a better life for all: Progress between Census 1996 and Census 2001, Pretoria.
    24. Statistics South Africa (2012). Census 2011: How the count was done, Pretoria.
    25. Statistics South Africa (2008). Community Survey, 2007 Basic Results: Municipalities, P0301.1, Pretoria.
    26. Sly DF. (1972). “Evaluating estimates of Net Migration and Net Migration Rates based on Survival Ratios corrected in varying Degrees” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67(338):313-318.
    27. United Nations. (1970). Methods of Measuring Internal Migration, Manual VI, New York.