Inflation, Money Supply, Exchange Rate, CPI, Time Series Analysis, Malaysian Economy
Abstract
Inflation remains a critical concern for policymakers due to its impact on economic stability and purchasing power. Understanding the key drivers of inflation is essential for crafting effective monetary policies. This study investigates the relationship between key macroeconomic variables—money supply (MS), exchange rate (ER), unemployment (UN), and GDP per capita (GDP)—and inflation; it is measured through the consumer price index (CPI) in Malaysia. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis, the data range is from 1992 to 2022 yearly data. The findings reveal that MS positively affects CPI, suggesting that an increase in money supply drives inflation. At the same time, ER shows a negative effect, indicating that a more robust exchange rate mitigates inflationary pressures. However, Malaysia has no significant relationship between the UN, GDP, and inflation. The study faces limitations of other inflation determinants, such as fiscal policy, external shocks, and reliance on national-level data. Future research should incorporate additional variables, explore regional dynamics, and employ advanced econometric models to capture short-term and long-term relationships. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to manage inflation and maintain sustainable economic growth.