This study investigates the determinants influencing the intention to adopt blockchain technology among manufacturing enterprises in Sichuan, China. Grounded in the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework, the research identifies and analyses technological, organizational, and environmental factors affecting adoption decisions. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected from 175 manufacturing companies and analysed via structural equation modelling with SmartPLS. The results indicate that relative advantage, compatibility, IT resources, and competitive pressure exert significant positive effects on blockchain adoption intention. In contrast, complexity, cost concerns, top management support, and firm size show significant negative relationships. Notably, top management support—often considered a positive driver—appears to have a negative effect, which may reflect a gap between leadership endorsement and operational readiness. Meanwhile, external support and government regulation were found to have no significant impact, pointing to potential shortcomings in the institutional support ecosystem. These findings underscore the greater relevance of internal capabilities, operational alignment, and market competitiveness compared with external or policy-driven factors. This research contributes to the growing literature on digital transformation in manufacturing and offers practical insights for stakeholders aiming to promote blockchain adoption in China’s industrial sector.