Strategy for Business Resilience using Scenario Planning Approach: A Study Case of Cement Company
List of Authors
  • Andi Rahmat Dinata, Yos Sunitiyoso

Keyword
  • Scenario Planning, Business Resilience, Strategic Management, Cement Industry

Abstract
  • The cement industry is experiencing increasing challenges due to shifting regulations, intense market competition, and growing sustainability demands. Rising regulatory requirements—such as CO₂ reduction, renewable energy adoption, and sustainability practices—are interlinked with competitive pressures from domestic and global players which has caused an oversupply and price wars, beside the evolving consumer preferences. These interconnected challenges create significant uncertainty that requires a clear and adaptable strategic direction. This research focuses on Indonesia’s cement industry, to develop a robust strategy that ensures resilience, profitability, and sustainability in this dynamic environment. The study employed a qualitative approach using the Exploratory Scenario Planning (XSP) methodology. Data was collected through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), expert interviews, and scenario planning workshops. Two key drivers—Industry Competition and Regulation Change—were identified as critical uncertainties, forming the basis for four plausible future scenarios: Market Disaster, Competition War, Peace Ocean, and Opportunist Surfing. The existing strategies were then tested against these scenarios to assess their robustness (effectiveness across all scenarios) and contingency (suitability for specific scenarios). The findings highlighted which strategies were resilient, which needed adjustments, and where opportunities for improvement existed.

Reference
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